Updated Monday, November 2, 9:30 PM EST with injury designations as of that time.
This week's slate leans heavily on matchups, with several defenses sitting at the top or bottom of the league in what they give up to a given position. The picks below follow those splits, so check injury designations before lock.
Week 9 starts
Malik Willis (MIA) vs DET
15.2 PPR points per game this season, 20.8 over his last 3. DET allows 25.4 PPR points per game to QBs, the most in the league. 100% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 33%.
Willis gets a Detroit defense that gives up more PPR points to quarterbacks than any other in the league. He has played every snap lately and is scoring well above his season pace, which fits a plus matchup at home.
Jared Goff (DET) at MIA
20.4 PPR points per game this season, 19 over his last 3. MIA allows 21.4 PPR points per game to QBs, 4th most. 98.3% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 62%.
Goff steps into a Miami defense that has been generous to quarterbacks, and he has been playing nearly every snap. He has been steady rather than spiking, which makes this a reasonable spot for a consistent week.
Jonah Coleman (DEN) at CAR
14.7 PPR points per game this season, 14.7 over his last 3. CAR allows 28.3 PPR points per game to RBs, the most in the league. 12.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 48%.
Coleman faces a Carolina defense that allows more PPR points to running backs than any other. His recent output matches his season average, so the matchup is the main reason to expect a bump.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) vs GB
12.4 PPR points per game this season, 12.7 over his last 3. GB allows 24.9 PPR points per game to RBs, 5th most. 16.5% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 62%.
Stevenson draws a Green Bay defense that has been among the more giveable for running backs. A 16.5% target share gives him a way to produce beyond carries, which helps at home.
Malik Nabers (NYG) at PHI
17.2 PPR points per game this season, 25.2 over his last 3. PHI allows 37.8 PPR points per game to WRs, 2nd most. 35.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 75%.
Nabers has been a key part of the New York passing game, and his recent scoring is well above his season average. Philadelphia has been one of the softer defenses against wideouts, so this looks like a favorable spot for a high-volume receiver.
Caleb Douglas (MIA) vs DET
11.9 PPR points per game this season, 11.1 over his last 3. DET allows 37.2 PPR points per game to WRs, 3rd most. 15.7% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 51%.
Douglas sees a Detroit defense that has been one of the friendlier ones for receivers. His target share is modest, so he is more of a matchup play than a centerpiece, but the opponent gives him room to produce.
DeMario Douglas (NE) vs GB
10.2 PPR points per game this season, 13.8 over his last 3. GB allows 34.8 PPR points per game to WRs, 5th most. 18.7% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 44%.
Douglas has been trending up lately, with a recent scoring average above his season mark. Green Bay has been giving up plenty to wide receivers, and his target share keeps him involved at home.
Harold Fannin Jr. (CLE) at NO
11.3 PPR points per game this season, 12.8 over his last 3. NO allows 16.7 PPR points per game to TEs, 6th most. 23% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 75%.
Fannin has been a busy part of the Cleveland passing game, with almost a quarter of the targets lately. New Orleans has been exploitable at tight end, which fits that usage.
Week 9 sits
Jordan Love (GB) at NE
19.4 PPR points per game this season, 20.6 over his last 3. NE allows 13.9 PPR points per game to QBs, 7th fewest. 100% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 34%.
Love has been productive and is on the field for every snap, but New England has been stingy against quarterbacks. That makes this a tougher road week given the matchup.
Drake Maye (NE) vs GB
21.1 PPR points per game this season, 24.9 over his last 3. GB allows 13.9 PPR points per game to QBs, 8th fewest. 100% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 22%.
Maye has been playing well and has been hot recently, but Green Bay has been tough on quarterbacks. The matchup is the reason for caution even with his strong form.
Bucky Irving (TB) at CHI
16.3 PPR points per game this season, 17.3 over his last 3. CHI allows 18.7 PPR points per game to RBs, 7th fewest. 12.5% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 24%.
Irving has scored well all season, but Chicago has been one of the tougher defenses against running backs. His modest target share limits how much he can offset a difficult matchup on the road.
Michael Wilson (ARI) at SEA
13.6 PPR points per game this season, 14.9 over his last 3. SEA allows 18.4 PPR points per game to WRs, the fewest in the league. 25.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 35%. listed Questionable.
Wilson has a healthy target share, but Seattle has been the toughest defense in the league on wide receivers. The Questionable tag adds uncertainty on top of an already difficult matchup.
Tetairoa McMillan (CAR) vs DEN
15.6 PPR points per game this season, 11.5 over his last 3. DEN allows 24.5 PPR points per game to WRs, 4th fewest. 27.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 19%.
McMillan has been getting a big share of the targets, but his recent scoring has dipped below his season pace. Denver has been tough on receivers, which makes a rebound harder to count on.
Jalen Coker (CAR) vs DEN
13.2 PPR points per game this season, 9.1 over his last 3. DEN allows 24.5 PPR points per game to WRs, 4th fewest. 23% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 19%.
Coker's recent scoring has slipped well below his season average, and Denver has been hard on wideouts. His target share is solid, but the matchup works against him this week.
Juwan Johnson (NO) vs CLE
11.3 PPR points per game this season, 6.4 over his last 3. CLE allows 13.6 PPR points per game to TEs, 16th most. 15.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 29%.
Johnson's recent scoring has fallen well below his season average, and his target share is modest. Cleveland has been stingy against tight ends, so there is little in the matchup to pull him back up.
Injury watch
Fantasy starters with an injury designation this week. Check again before kickoff.
| Player | Pos | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Jackson | QB | BAL | Out |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | Questionable |
| James Cook III | RB | BUF | Questionable |
| Bhayshul Tuten | RB | JAX | Questionable |
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | Out |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | Out |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | IR |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | Questionable |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | DET | Questionable |
| Christian Watson | WR | GB | Questionable |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | Out |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | KC | IR |
| Drake London | WR | ATL | Questionable |
| Michael Wilson | WR | ARI | Questionable |
How these picks are made
Every name on this page is chosen by rules, not by hand. We take the fantasy-relevant players at each position by PPR points per game this season (at least 3 games). A start is a player outside the obvious every-week starters whose opponent is in the top 8 for PPR points allowed to his position, who has held his scoring over his last 3 games, and who isn't questionable. A sit is a usual starter facing a bottom-8 defense for his position, or whose scoring over his last 3 games has fallen well below his season average. These thresholds are heuristics.
Where a player shows a Confidence figure, it comes from our NFL confidence model, scored against this week's opponent using only games already played. The model is measured on held-out games (AUC 0.697 on the 2025 season); see its accuracy. A start needs a score of at least 30% and a sit at most 35% when the model has one. Injury designations come from the latest team reports and can change up to kickoff.