Updated Saturday, October 31, 11:13 PM EDT with injury designations as of that time.
This week's slate is full of matchups where the opposing defense decides the call, with some units giving up points in bunches and others shutting down entire positions. Lean on the matchup context here, and treat each recommendation as a read on the situation rather than a certainty.
Week 8 starts
Drake Maye (NE) at MIA
20.9 PPR points per game this season, 30.6 over his last 3. MIA allows 21.2 PPR points per game to QBs, 6th most. 100% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 71%.
Maye has been playing every snap and heads to a Miami defense that has been generous to opposing quarterbacks. His recent scoring pace suggests the offense runs through him, which fits a soft matchup.
Geno Smith (NYJ) vs LV
15.3 PPR points per game this season, 15.8 over his last 3. LV allows 20.8 PPR points per game to QBs, 7th most. 100% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 51%.
Smith gets a home date with a Las Vegas defense that has leaked points to quarterbacks, and he has been on the field for every snap lately. His scoring has been steady rather than spiky, so expect a solid floor for a QB play.
Rhamondre Stevenson (NE) at MIA
12.4 PPR points per game this season, 14.5 over his last 3. MIA allows 26.4 PPR points per game to RBs, 4th most. 13.5% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 63%.
Stevenson faces a Miami run defense that has been one of the more generous ones to running backs. His recent target share adds a receiving element on top of the ground work in a favorable spot.
Braelon Allen (NYJ) vs LV
10.9 PPR points per game this season, 16.8 over his last 3. LV allows 25.3 PPR points per game to RBs, 5th most. 15% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 55%.
Allen has been trending up lately, and his recent scoring is well above his season pace. A Las Vegas defense that has bled points to backs gives that rising role a good chance to keep paying off at home.
Blake Corum (LAR) vs LAC
9.9 PPR points per game this season, 15.8 over his last 3. LAC allows 23.3 PPR points per game to RBs, 7th most. 7.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 49%.
Corum has produced noticeably more over his last 3 than his season average, and the Chargers have given up plenty to running backs. His receiving role is small, so this call leans on the matchup and recent trend more than a safe floor.
T.J. Hockenson (MIN) at DET
10.5 PPR points per game this season, 13.4 over his last 3. DET allows 26.8 PPR points per game to TEs, the most in the league. 21% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 47%.
Hockenson draws a Detroit defense that has been the most generous in the league to tight ends. His 21% target share means the quarterback has been looking his way, which is what you want against a defense like this.
Mason Taylor (NYJ) vs LV
9.9 PPR points per game this season, 12.6 over his last 3. LV allows 18.5 PPR points per game to TEs, 4th most. 17.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 75%.
Taylor is getting a healthy share of targets, and Las Vegas has been a friendly matchup for tight ends. With his recent scoring running ahead of his season pace, he looks like a strong option at a thin position.
Week 8 sits
Caleb Williams (CHI) at SEA
21.2 PPR points per game this season, 15.8 over his last 3. SEA allows 10.6 PPR points per game to QBs, 2nd fewest. 95.3% of snaps over the last 3. Confidence: 31%.
Williams has been a strong scorer this season, but his output has cooled lately and Seattle has been stingy against quarterbacks. This is a tough road spot, so consider alternatives if you have them.
Tony Pollard (TEN) at CIN
12.5 PPR points per game this season, 16.4 over his last 3. CIN allows 15.8 PPR points per game to RBs, the fewest in the league. 6% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 26%.
Pollard has scored well recently, but Cincinnati has been the stingiest defense in the league against running backs. His small target share leaves little receiving work to offset a hard matchup on the ground.
Emanuel Wilson (SEA) vs CHI
12.4 PPR points per game this season, 12.3 over his last 3. CHI allows 18.7 PPR points per game to RBs, 8th fewest. 4.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 25%.
Wilson's recent production has been flat, and Chicago has been better than most at holding running backs down. His minimal target share means he needs the ground game to carry him, which is a tough ask here.
Luther Burden III (CHI) at SEA
13.9 PPR points per game this season, 16.7 over his last 3. SEA allows 18.4 PPR points per game to WRs, the fewest in the league. 17.3% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 28%.
Burden has been a productive piece of the Chicago passing game lately, but Seattle has allowed the fewest points to wide receivers in the league. The target share is real, though the matchup caps what you can reasonably expect.
Sam LaPorta (DET) vs MIN
13.2 PPR points per game this season, 15 over his last 3. MIN allows 6.9 PPR points per game to TEs, the fewest in the league. 16% target share over the last 3. Confidence: 24%.
LaPorta has been a reliable scorer with a solid target share, but Minnesota has been the toughest defense in the league on tight ends. Even a trusted role has a hard time overcoming that kind of matchup.
Injury watch
Fantasy starters with an injury designation this week. Check again before kickoff.
| Player | Pos | Team | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Monangai | RB | CHI | Out |
| Breece Hall | RB | NYJ | Questionable |
| RJ Harvey | RB | DEN | IR |
| Zay Flowers | WR | BAL | Questionable |
| DeVonta Smith | WR | PHI | Out |
| Tyquan Thornton | WR | KC | IR |
| George Pickens | WR | DAL | Questionable |
| DJ Moore | WR | BUF | Questionable |
How these picks are made
Every name on this page is chosen by rules, not by hand. We take the fantasy-relevant players at each position by PPR points per game this season (at least 3 games). A start is a player outside the obvious every-week starters whose opponent is in the top 8 for PPR points allowed to his position, who has held his scoring over his last 3 games, and who isn't questionable. A sit is a usual starter facing a bottom-8 defense for his position, or whose scoring over his last 3 games has fallen well below his season average. These thresholds are heuristics.
Where a player shows a Confidence figure, it comes from our NFL confidence model, scored against this week's opponent using only games already played. The model is measured on held-out games (AUC 0.697 on the 2025 season); see its accuracy. A start needs a score of at least 30% and a sit at most 35% when the model has one. Injury designations come from the latest team reports and can change up to kickoff.